Aotearoa’s run of cold, calm weather will break this weekend as warmer air, strengthening winds and widespread rain push in from the south.
After a week of settled high pressure, frosty mornings and blue skies, conditions across New Zealand are about to change. The ridge that brought sub-zero temperatures to inland South Island towns and chilly mornings across the upper North Island is moving east, opening the door to a series of fronts arriving from the Tasman Sea.
MetService meteorologist Devlin Lynden says the transition begins late Saturday.
“We can enjoy the clear days for a little bit longer. But that ridge is on the move, and we’ll start to feel the effects as early as Saturday in the south.”
By Sunday, showers reach Northland and the West Coast. By Monday, rain and rising winds are likely across much of the country. Northeasterlies will strengthen, bringing milder temperatures and potentially heavy rain for the north of both islands early next week. Watches or warnings may be issued.
Where to Boat: Cook Strait to Canterbury
Boaties looking to make the most of the remaining calm should look south.
The pick of the weekend is the upper and eastern South Island. Wellington, Marlborough, Nelson and Christchurch will hold on to fine, stable conditions right through Sunday. Winds remain light, swells manageable, and visibility good. Mana and Kapiti coasts are also favourable, with nothing stronger than a 10–15 knot breeze forecast until Monday.
These regions offer a last chance for relaxed midwinter cruising before the next front arrives.
Where Not to Boat: Northland and the West Coast
Further north and west, the weather begins to bite.
Northland and the Hauraki Gulf face rising northeast winds from Saturday, building to 25 knots by Monday, with swells of up to 3 metres. The Bay of Islands, Coromandel, and Bream Bay will become increasingly uncomfortable.
Meanwhile, the South Island’s West Coast turns wet Friday night, with showers spreading north into Tasman Bay by Sunday. Visibility, sea state and bar conditions will deteriorate steadily.
With conditions going downhill, smaller boats should plan around Friday or stay put by late weekend.